Hope Floats, But Critical Mineral Value-Chain Profits Do Not; Demand Unlikely to Swim Higher If Incentives Are Drowned

Monthly Update – Critical Minerals – Daily Chemical Reactions

Hope Floats, But Critical Mineral Value-Chain Profits Do Not; Demand Unlikely to Swim Higher If Incentives Are Drowned

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell 1% MoM in November, a second consecutive monthly drop, to fall ~11% below its YTD high in May – most components to stay oversupplied in the near term.
• Critical Mineral Supply: We discuss recent support in global spodumene and lithium prices in November, the carbon emissions surrounding different types of lithium production, and flag project announcements in the news.
• Clean Energy Components, Batteries & Recycling: We discuss downward trending battery prices, which, along with weak material prices, are causing problems for battery recyclers, and Northvolt issues support our concerns.
• Critical Mineral Macro Demand: We discuss conditional gov’t financial support of Rivian that favors more production in the face of rising EV market concerns surrounding incentives and import tariffs on battery materials.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index fell ~1% in November, down ~1% YTD after a ~53% drop in 2023.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, December 2024

See the PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams