Pleasing Demand, Protecting Industries: A Delicate Balancing Act Among Those with High Production Costs!

Companies Mentioned: Braskem, PT Chandra Asri Pacific, Rio Tinto, Air Products, Dow, INEOS, Meta, Entergy, Glencore, Vitol, Kolibri Global Energy, Georgia Power, Schneider Electric, NVIDIA, Shell, Equinor, Tesla, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai, Northvolt, Heirloom, Glencore, Li-cycle, Solaris Energy, GM, Safran, Cargill, Dollar General, Kroger
Commodities Mentioned: PVC, Polypropylene, Propylene, Power, AI, Natural Gas , EVs, HEV, BEV, Batteries, Critical Minerals

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global government policies continue to navigate the delicate balance between protecting domestic industry and keeping demand up – those with low production costs are best positioned but still face risk.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss the launch of an antidumping probe into homo-polymer PP imports in Indonesia, extending our recent commentary about rising global protectionist policy and likely global trade shifts.
Energy/Upstream: We flag the META announcement to build a data center in NE Louisiana and the launch of efforts in Alberta to attract data centers, as both support our positive view of North American natural gas demand.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We highlight our recent critical mineral research and discuss US hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) relative to battery electric vehicle (BEV) growth trends and near-term risks facing US BEV markets.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss survey data suggesting rising pessimism among European companies toward investing in China and European greenfield projects completed in China, hitting a multi-year high in 3Q24.