Cost Advantage Or Differentiation? If You Lack One (Or Both), 2025 Efforts Could Be All About Staying Alive!  

Global Market Analysis

Cost Advantage Or Differentiation? If You Lack One (Or Both), 2025 Efforts Could Be All About Staying Alive!  

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: We discuss the Dow 4Q24 earnings report and its early 2025 commentary, its restructuring activities, and highlight its Pack Studios unit as a differentiator that we think will gain more applause over time.
• Supply Chain/Commodities: We comment on global methanol market conditions, most notably elevated methanol spot prices in Western markets relative to Asia, following the Methanex 4Q24 earnings results today.
• Energy/Upstream: We discuss the Valero 4Q24 earnings report and its view of refinery market conditions in 2025, and we also comment on the Shell report and its management view of its refining assets and asset-light strategy.
• Sustainability/Energy Transition: We highlight BASF and LyondellBasell announcements regarding supplying their operations in Europe with renewable electricity and the challenges and opportunities surrounding these efforts.
• Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight commentary from Stolt-Nielson on global chemical tanker freight rates and their general views toward 2025, along with many shippers continuing to avoid the Red Sea.

Exhibit 1: Dow highlights moderate/mixed or weak conditions across its regions and end markets.

Source: Dow – 4Q24 Earnings Presentation, January 2025

See the PDF below for all charts, tables, and diagrams