Global Weekly Catalyst No. 270

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 270

• General Thoughts: The export of US ethane for use as a cost-effective ethylene production feedstock abroad is an ongoing development, but potential US actions toward Chinese shipping vessels could rattle this market.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: Brent crude oil, Asia and Europe naphtha, and Asia and Europe natural gas fell last week relative to US natural gas and USGC ethane, suggesting lower base chemical prices and pinched US margins.
• Olefins: USGC spot ethylene margins fell to a YTD low last week, while sturdier spot ethylene and cracker co-product values in Asia and Europe, along with naphtha price weakness, lifted margins in these regions WoW.   
• Other Base Chemicals: We flag the announced Methanex Geismar 3 unit 1H25 downtime, mixed methanol spot market movements, and the broad-based global decline in benzene prices as a plus for some merchant buyers.
• Agriculture: US ammonia spot prices were unchanged last week, but prices fell in Asia and Europe – while US corn market developments are a plus for ammonia producers, higher US natural gas prices are pinching profits.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production margins remained negative last week, pinched by higher corn costs, while US crude oil refinery margins improved WoW, helped by lower crude oil prices and production cuts.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Asia ethylene margins based on USGC ethane imports remain compelling but face risk.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, March 2025