High Stakes, Few Can Afford!

Key Points

Hydrogen’s economic reality demands massive scale, making success a game for deep-pocketed giants, not cash-strapped start-ups struggling to stay afloat, and many with scale and deep pockets still face challenges.
Our discussions with potential hydrogen buyers confirm that few are willing to pay hefty premiums to enable the clean hydrogen build-out; however, competitively priced options undoubtedly will win market share.
Companies with breakthrough hydrogen technologies should secure strong financial partners or license their innovations to scale faster, minimize risk, and ensure market adoption – funding challenges have risen for most.
Lingering uncertainty with Western government incentives is putting many of its projects on hold. However, we observe green projects moving forward in China, and blue strategies should be sought out more in the West.
Otherwise, we highlight movements in ammonia and methanol markets, offshore wind growth continuing to advance in China, and our hydrogen cost views. We also flag news relevant to hydrogen and associated markets.

Exhibit 1: Green makes little sense on a cash-cost basis; only the best positioned in blue can make the math work.