From Cornfields to Cargo Ships: What’s Fueling the Next Supply Shock?

Key Findings

General Thoughts: US ethanol producers face negative margins amid overproduction, with biofuel policy support in the US as a potential demand driver positioned to tighten markets, though with mixed sector consequences.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss the benefit of rising ethanol production for corn demand, crop input markets, and farmer economics, and discuss the impact of crude oil refinery cutbacks on US propylene production.
Energy/Upstream: Canada’s propane exports to Asia are unsurprisingly surging, and so are US propane exports—we discuss shifts in global energy trade as cheaper North American chemical feedstock is pulled abroad.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss the upcoming IMO fuel policy talks, ammonia’s rising role in marine fuels relative to alternatives, and the uncertain economic signals for broader clean fuel adoption on a global scale.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: With IMO clean fuel policy in mind, we discuss falling global freight rates, tariff-driven volatility, and how industrial activity could shift as geopolitical and supply chain risks build.