Margins on the Run: Chasing Profits in a Shifting World

Key Findings

General Thoughts: On average, global crude oil refinery and ethylene margins look better YTD – until you dig deeper. Do not mistake falling costs for strength, as most margin support pockets will likely reverse by mid-year.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Global chemical margins mask deep regional rifts—Saudi integration surges, Europe restructures, and USGC ethane cracks under pressure—feedstock flexibility and integration are differentiators.
Energy/Upstream: Global petrochemical dynamics will shift if US shale tightens and COTC strategies abroad gain relative ground. Siemens Energy’s rebound signals a lasting upswing in electrification and infrastructure demand.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: France’s hydrogen pullback and potentially shaky carbon removal economics spotlight a critical question: can clean tech scale without firmer economics—or will policy alone carry the load?
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Trump’s tariff shockwaves are redrawing global freight flows—container and trucking markets now face a volatile mix of frontloading, margin pressure, and long-term structural upheaval.