Global Weekly Catalyst No. 282

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 282

• General Thoughts: Amid uneven global demand trends, profitability across chemicals and associated markets in 2025 hinges increasingly on volatile feedstock costs, creating strategic uncertainty for producers worldwide.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Rising US natural gas prices relative to crude oil and Ex-US benchmarks imply margin pressure, heightened volatility, and persistent oversupply risk for global chemical producers through 2025.
• Olefins: Global olefin markets are facing downward pressure in the near term amid rising global capacity, subdued demand, and minimal prospects for higher crude prices. A disruptive hurricane season would help.
• Other Base Chemicals: Weakness in aromatics and methanol markets contrasts with rising European benzene and methanol due to supply issues. Chlor-alkali fundamentals remain muted despite firmer caustic soda pricing.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia markets face emerging risks beneath the surface of stability, as rising production costs, increased Eastern supply, subdued Asian demand, and weaker on-farm economics threaten margins.  
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refining and ethanol markets display mixed signals, with near-term margin support possible amid easing feedstock costs and rising summer demand, especially if production moderates.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global feedstock prices trend higher WoW; petrochemical cost curves flatter YTD.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, June 2025