Global Weekly Catalyst No. 284

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 284

• General Thoughts: US chemical producers gained ground last week as cheaper natural gas and wider feedstock spreads benefited US margins, and Middle East conflict risks span from feedstocks to methanol production.
• Feedstocks & Energy: The US base chemical feedstock advantage widened last week as US natural gas prices declined relative to those in Europe and Asia, and oil prices rose. Many US chemical margins reflect upticks.
• Olefins: US spot ethylene production margins rose last week as ethylene prices rose relative to ethane. In contrast, ex-US naphtha and USGC propane prices rose, broadly pinching propylene and butadiene spreads.  
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot methanol prices rose last week amid rising ex-US natural gas prices and the risk of Middle East tensions impacting methanol production – a plus for US producers, a negative for buyers.
• Agriculture: Stable ammonia prices favor low-cost US and Middle Eastern producers, while high-cost producers, especially outside of Europe, face the risk of weaker corn markets in 2H25 and the impact of CBAM in 2026.    
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refining margins declined for the fourth consecutive week last week as crude oil prices rose relative to gasoline. US ethanol spot margins also fell primarily due to weak ethanol prices.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: The Iran-Israel conflict is likely to spur Western methanol prices, a negative for buyers.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, June 2025