Global Weekly Catalyst No. 301

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 301

• General Thoughts: Global chemical markets entered 4Q25 in synchronized deflation, where feedstock softness, rationalization, and integration depth, not demand recovery, will likely define competitiveness into early 2026.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Global chemical feedstock deflation in 4Q25 signals tightening margins and a volatile 1H26 defined by LNG-driven gas dynamics, naphtha oversupply, and structural margin compression relative to 1H25.
• Olefins: Global olefin markets fracture in 4Q25 as outages, weak demand, and feedstock divergence compress margins, rewarding integrated, flexible operators and likely exposing structural inefficiencies well into 2026.
• Other Base Chemicals: Global benzene weakens on soft demand, methanol steadies amid regional gas volatility, and chlor-alkali remains soft, framing weak 4Q conditions and integration-driven regional margin divergences.
• Agriculture: Fertilizer markets in 4Q25 reflect tightening ammonia supply, muted crop exports, and cautious restocking, setting the global stage for a volatile, gas-driven recalibration of nitrogen economics through 1H26.
• Refining & Biofuels: Ethanol margins softened while refining spreads held firm WoW, signaling a late-2025 plateau that transitions into 1H266, defined by policy-driven ethanol support and refining margin normalization.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: USGC PGP spot prices fall to a multi-year low amid oversupplied derivative markets. 

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, October 2025