Ethanol, We Have Exports: Blending No Longer Sets Margins

C-MACC Weekly Sustainability and Energy Transition Report

Ethanol, We Have Exports: Blending No Longer Sets Margins

• 1st Topic of the Week: As US ethanol production hits records, will exports and chemical pathways replace gasoline blending as the dominant clearing mechanism by the end of the decade, absent new fuel policy support?
• 2nd Topic of the Week: Will capital discipline, policy support, and rising offtake certainty entrench blue hydrogen dominance in 2026, further stranding speculative green capacity before demand, grids, and economics converge?
• Otherwise, sustainability markets in 2026 reward reliability, scale, and bankability, as carbon scarcity, feedstock constraints, and load growth overpower ambition-driven models across energy, materials, and removals.

Exhibit 1: US ethanol markets show export-led resilience beyond gasoline and RIN volatility.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2026