From Boom and Gloom to Prune and Perfume: Producers Refine to Redefine the Return Line

Global Market Analysis

From Boom and Gloom to Prune and Perfume: Producers Refine to Redefine the Return Line

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: Westlake is repositioning toward integrated building systems, using rationalization and downstream integration to enhance structural durability, cash consistency, and through-cycle returns.
• Supply Chain/Commodities: Petronas Chemicals Group underscores Asia’s structural divide between pockets of strength and broad petrochemical oversupply, with recovery hinging on global supply rationalization.
• Energy/Upstream: Integrated US natural gas infrastructure expansion, reinforced across 4Q25 energy earnings, positions the US as the structural LNG and chemical feedstock anchor of global markets.
• Sustainability/Energy Transition: Circular plastics targets reset as oversupply and weak premiums pressure return thresholds, making value-chain collaboration and contracted demand decisive through 2030.
• Downstream/Other Chemicals: Construction recovery shifts to a margin-led phase, as specification depth, integration, and structural cost resets unlock amplified earnings leverage across platforms in 2026.

Exhibit 1: Westlake restructuring accelerates building products pivot and enhances through-cycle return profile.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, February 2026

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