C-MACC Weekly “CRETER” (Climate etc.)
The Fuel Ethanol Market Could Self Destruct – Good For SAF/Gevo
- While lower LCFS prices suggest increased availability of renewable fuels in California, most of what is under development is yet to hit the market.
- A further collapse in credit values because of oversupply, would impact ethanol economics, viability of the mid-west CCS projects, and more ethanol investment.
- While developers are holding out hope that LCFS or something like it will extend to other states – we are in an environmental no-mans-land in the US right now.
- We expect SAF to come to the rescue eventually, competing with renewable diesel and potentially using significant ethanol volumes – Gevo/Axens process.
- Otherwise, we look at recycling and the need for all options, decarbonizing LNG, hydrogen networks, and what goes in them, and European ESG fund changes.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams