Daily Chemical Reaction
Can’t You See – Chemicals To Face Harsh 4Q Setting, Agriculture Sector Trends To Remain Constructive
Key Points:
- We follow our September 1 research, Wake Me Up When September Ends (Though It May Get Worse In 4Q22!) – Chemical Profits Face Narcolepsy, to close the month with updated views of 4Q22 and why we think sector profit estimates remain too high.
- We highlight the Williams reiteration of 2022 profit guidance, as the energy space remains quite profitable, in contrast to chemicals, and we discuss energy price trends.
- We discuss the trends favoring Navigator Holdings and Enterprise Products to boost its US ethylene exports and that Trinseo is mulling the closure of EU styrene capacity.
- The C-MACC clean energy mineral index declined ~2% MoM in September, but the pace of change is moderating. We also highlight the Talos Energy expansion in CCS.
- We study US consumer spending trends, flag the nearly 20yr high seen in US mortgage rates, and discuss why our chemical end market demand concerns are high near term.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams