The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Soul to Squeeze
November 29, 2022
Report Sections:
Feedstocks & Energy, Global Ethylene Cracker, Spot Profit Analysis, Ethylene & Propylene, Price Trends, Polyethylene Review, Other Relevant Global Polymer Trends, Other Relevant Global Chemical Trends, Global Chemical Data Sheets, Flow Charts & Other Ancillary Data
Companies Mentioned:
Nutrien, CF Industries, LSB Industries, Koch Fertilizer, Yara International, Oxy, Westlake, Shin-Etsu, Orbia, Formosa Plastics

The Weekly Catalyst

Global Chemical Update – Soul to Squeeze

Key Points:

  • NW European Natural Gas prices have surged higher following their mid-2H22 flop, a risk we noted in our early 4Q22 research for European chemical production but a net plus for US exporters.
  • Global nitrogen/ammonia fertilizer prices held up WoW, helped by rising production costs, which were considerably higher in NW Europe relative to the US. A notable plus for domestic producers.
  • USGC ethane values rose relative to Ex-US naphtha values WoW, flattening the global ethylene cost curve a bit at the feedstock level. US natural gas also surged higher compared to Brent Crude.
  • Global polymer values, on average, were modestly lower WoW, with polypropylene values seeing the most significant decline per our model, while polyethylene reflected the most support.

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