Daily Chemical Reaction
Cold, Cold Heart – Global Polymer Markets Remain Frosty, US PVC May Dethaw Faster Than Most Expect
- US polymer price hikes near term appear unlikely, absent unplanned outages or a surge in energy/feedstock costs. PVC has the most potential for an upside surprise.
- NW Europe natural gas prices have strengthened in 4Q relative to US natural gas, hurting business sentiment, and look to be even limiting EU Christmas light displays.
- We highlight recent movements in NW Europe, Asia, and US ethylene values relative to USGC ethane values, showing still sizable benefits surrounding US exports.
- European renewable power forecasts mostly look too optimistic regarding their near-term market impact. We also discuss US PET recycling rates and carbon credit trends.
- West coast container traffic has fallen notably from 2H22 highs. We show recent volume trends at Long Beach and Los Angeles and discuss Nov. US retail sales data.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams