Daily Chemical Reaction
Energy Transition Demand Losing To Global Economic Malaise – Good For Buyers Bad For Investment, For Now
- The decline in critical mineral prices suggests that the macroeconomic backdrop has influenced demand more than energy transition growth. Lower prices favor stalling growth investments.
- There is a risk that this continues through 2024, and the recovery after that exposes significant critical mineral shortages because of the investment lag – lithium looks OK, but others may not.
- Ineos makes another opportunistic move in the US in a chemical market that is moving toward those willing to swing for the fences – we anticipate much more strategic movement in 24/25.
- We see OPEC’s moves as a leading indicator of weaker growth and note South Korea oil import declines. We also look at LNG growth and how it will drive surpluses of US chemical feedstocks.
- We comment on the carbon footprint of power-based hydrogen, who will buy decarbonized crops, why Mississippi may have a shot at hydrogen, and how US economic growth stays high.
See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams