Sunday Executive Summary

2024: Significant Geopolitical Risks, But There Always Are, Low Growth May Be a Trigger

December 31, 2023

Companies Mentioned: Enterprise Products, Dow, LyondellBasell, Pinnacle Polymers, Braskem, CF Industries, Nutrien, LSB Industries, Westlake, Occidental, Shin-Etsu, Formosa Plastics, Adnoc, OCI NV, Koch Fertilizer, Covestro, Ineos, BP, ExxonMobil, Nippon Steel, US Steel, Fury Resources, Mitsui Chemicals, Livent, Idemitsu Kosan, Grupa Azoty, MEGlobal, Equate, Element Solutions, Denka, Petrobras, Sinochem, Shell, Ionic Mineral Technologies, Air Liquide, TotalEnergies, Alcoa, PureCycle Technologies, Anaergia, FREYR Battery, Verdant, Azure Minerals, Aker Carbon Capture, North American Helium, Nova Chemicals, Versalis, Repsol, Mitsubishi Corporation, SK Innovation, BASF, Neste, Pembina, Indorama Ventures, Evonik, Sibur, NextChem, LG Chem, Bharat Petroleum, Allkem, Amogy, Altus Power, Unico Solar, Deepak Nitrite, Petronet, Orica, LG Energy, Equinor, Octopus Energy, FedEx, General Mills, PQ, OMV, Harbour Energy, Wintershall DEA, Technip Energies, Brenntag, Pinnacle Minerals, Norsk e-Fuel, Sika, Petronas Chemicals, SK Ecoplant, PetroChina, Petro Rabigh, Stolt-Nielsen, Orsted, Royal Helium, Sinopec, Gary Plastic, Samyang, Ube, Tellurian, Origin Materials, Avangrid, Turning Point Energy, Ecolab, Next2Sun, Brenmiller Energy, Soluna, Apogee Enterprises, Bird Global, Methanex, OCI, Celanese, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Idemitsu, Ingevity, Venture Global, Longbow, NuScale, Sulzer, Eni, Braskem Idesa, Capstone Copper, Worthington Steel, Rare Element Resources, Advanced Hydrocarbon Fuels Limited, Bloom Energy, Advent Technologies, Kolibri Global Energy
Commodities Mentioned: Plastics, PVC, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, PU, PC, PET, Critical Minerals, Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, Natural Gas/NGLs, Crude/Naphtha, Ethylene, Ammonia, PDH, SAF, Renewable Fuels, Carbon, Lithium, Copper, Nickel, Graphite

C-MACC Sunday Thematic & Weekly Recap 200

2024: Significant Geopolitical Risks, But There Always Are, Low Growth May Be a Trigger

We enter 2024 with arguably more geopolitical risk than we had a year ago – China is still less predictable, support for Ukraine is eroding around the edges, and the Middle East looks less stable.
When you add what will likely be the most divisive (and possibly violent) election cycle the US has seen in decades, the Macro looks shaky –the Macro setting is what tends to drive materials and industrials.
We see a persistent oversupply of basic chemicals, some building short-term oversupply in metals, lifting investment cuts despite constructive long-term views, and an oil market needing OPEC+ cohesion.
In energy transition, we expect more bankruptcies than breakout success stories in 2024, although blue hydrogen investment in the US could surge with the Primacy ruling for Louisiana.
Fuel is one to watch in 2024 as the competition between methanol and ammonia for shipping could heat up; we expect roles for both. Also, expect some frustration in SAF as airlines need more than can be made.

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams