Plugging Holes In A Sinking Ship? An Example Of Terrible Sell-Side Research, and Other Issues

Companies Mentioned: Albemarle, Plug Power, Bayer, Lummus Global, Formosa Plastics, Asian Paints, H.B. Fuller, LyondellBasell, Ineos, Westlake, Elementis, Insteel Industries, Nan Ya Plastics, BP, ExxonMobil, Hertz, Tesla, BASF, Heraeus, BlackRock, BMW, Bunge, Iberdrola, Enel, Drax, Braskem, Shell, Avangrid, Ceres, BYD, Covestro, Delta, Air Products, Brenmiller, Novoloop, Apple, Bosch, Hyundai, Fastenal Company, Morgan Stanley
Commodities Mentioned: Polyethylene, Polyethylene, Metals, Wood Products, EVs, Lithium, Propylene, Polypropylene, Polycarbonate, Oil, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Polymers, Carbon

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Since 2021, many companies have expanded rapidly to only see expected demand fail to materialize as projected, lifting industry financial challenges amid falling expected returns and rising cash burn.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss recent corporate actions at Albemarle to restructure and cut growth capex following the decline in lithium prices. We also discuss recent movements in propylene and polypropylene.
Energy/Upstream: We discuss recent IEA and OPEC commentary on oil markets, flag the shrinking arbitrage between US and Asia and Europe LNG markets, and estimated China GDP growth impacts on energy markets.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss the Plug Power announced US$1bn share offering, following its significant recent share price decline that highlights mounting challenges among electrolyzer producers.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight global freight rates surging prices between China and the US East Coast and Europe, and we flag a German credit availability indicator and numerous US housing market statistics.

Exhibit 1: The electrolyzer stocks have all suffered as project growth has slowed, but Plug is hitting the lows.