Closing Price Gaps, Pressing Cost Advantages – Polymer Producer Relative Advantages Take Center Stage At NPE!

Companies Mentioned: Trinseo, AmSty, Braskem, Monsanto, Sterling Chemicals, LyondellBasell, Lotte Chemical, Oxy, Shell, Nippon Oxirane, Nova Chemicals, ExxonMobil, Dow, Westlake, NuScale, Bloom Energy, X-Energy, Hysata, Lucid, Tesla, Rivian, Fisker
Commodities Mentioned: Polyethylene, Styrene, Propylene Oxide, PVC, Ethylene, Copper, LNG, Crude Oil, Fossil Fuels, Renewable Power, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, CO2, Fuels, Nuclear Power, Hydrocarbons, Coal, Grain, Minerals

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global polymer producers rely on their cost position and/or differentiated product solutions to outperform in oversupplied markets – those lacking one or both items face a challenging 2H24/2025.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss our general takeaways from NPE, the significant North American and Middle East ethylene cost advantage relative to Europe and Asia, and the recent strength in global copper prices.
Energy/Upstream: We compare global average crude oil refinery margins to global average ethylene margins, the integration of energy and chemical value chains, and several drivers of global petrochemical feedstock markets.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We flag two NuScale Power 1Q24 earnings presentation slides showing surging electricity demand growth, which will likely outpace supply – greater imagination is needed to solve this problem.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight North American rail traffic trends, where chemicals are among the strongest sectors YTD, the uptick WoW in global freight rates, and several other relevant downstream indicators.