The Weekly Catalyst

Rock You Like A Hurricane – Beryl Disruptions Favor US Spot Commodity Chemical Price Strength, May Harm Specialty Profits
July 9, 2024
Companies Mentioned:
Dow, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Formosa Plastics, Braskem, Ineos, Celanese, OQ Chemicals, CF Industries, Nutrien, LSB Industries, Yara International
Commodities Mentioned:
Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Ethylene, Propylene, Benzene, Corn, Soybeans, Ethane, Naphtha, Crude Oil, Natural Gas
Report Sections:
Feedstocks & Energy, Global Ethylene Cracker – Spot Profit Analysis, Ethylene & Propylene – Price Trends, Other Relevant Global Commodity Chemical Trends, Global Polyethylene Analysis, Global Polypropylene Analysis, Global Chlor-Vinyl Analysis, Global Methanol Analysis, Global Chemical Data Sheets, Agriculture Price & Margin Dashboard, Flow Charts & Other Ancillary Data

The Weekly Catalyst

Rock You Like A Hurricane – Beryl Disruptions Favor US Spot Commodity Chemical Price Strength, May Harm Specialty Profits

  • Polymer Market Trends: Hurricane Harvey was labeled the first global hurricane for chemicals in 2017, given its impact on US plastic producers increasingly targeting exports – we discuss similarities with Hurricane Beryl.
  • Chemical Market Trends: US commodity chemical prices rose last week, and we anticipate further strength amid production disruptions on the US Gulf Coast – a plus for commodity prices that is negative for buyers.
  • Feedstock Market Trends: Brent Crude Oil and Ex-US naphtha prices rose WoW relative to global natural gas and USGC ethane prices, steepening the global chemical cost curve, on average, in favor of North America.
  • Agriculture Market Trends: Global ammonia prices were mostly unchanged, on average, last week, though US natural gas prices fell relative to Ex-US values, lifting US margins. We see limited Agriculture impact from Beryl.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US commodity chemical and S&P chemical index movements following Hurricane Harvey.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, January 2024


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