Low Prices Keep Many Green Ambitions In Check; Low Costs Keep Existing Manufacturers In-Play

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Aluminum is an example of a critical mineral that saw a sharp price decline in July as green sector and Chinese demand failed to meet expectations; it shares similar drivers with many other critical minerals.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We highlight the DuPont 2Q24 earnings release, highlighting its electronics business, show OMV olefin and polyolefin margin views, and discuss rising global commentary surrounding USGC ethane.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight US refinery margin trends, which have increased from early 2H24 lows, and flag US refinery capacity additions through 2024, noting recent crude oil price movements and our views.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss wind turbine price developments on a per MW basis, flagging the prospect of an uptick into 2025, and the price of carbon allowances in the California cap-and-trade program.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We highlight DuPont end-market views from its 2Q24 earnings presentation and discuss the drop in the China PMI index in July. However, signs of China’s exporting excess products remain high.