A Plastics Focus Swing To Emissions Adds To The US Competitive Edge: Exports Rise Again?

Global Polymer Update

A Plastics Focus Swing To Emissions Adds To The US Competitive Edge: Exports Rise Again?

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: We compare US, Europe, and Asia spot polymer prices, showing that Europe prices reflect premiums – a plus for its post-consumer recycled (PCR) resin producers, but the math for most still is not working!
• Supply Chain/Commodities: Most North American resin producers benefit from lower costs than Europe and Asia, and North America could benefit further if resin buyers shift focus from PCR content to emission reduction goals.
• Energy/Upstream: Brent Crude and Ex-US naphtha values reflect higher levels than US natural gas and USGC ethane, respectively, compared to 2015—19 levels – a notably beneficial trend for North American chemicals.
• Recycled/Renewable Polymers: We discuss missed European waste collection and recycled material targets, a category where the region should win as its economics are more geared to waste sorting costs than energy prices.
• Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss global packager consolidation, the streamlining of operations, and the push among some away from sustainable solution targets and more toward value-chain emission reductions.

Exhibit 1: Europe spot polymer prices, shown by polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polypropylene (PP) values below, are above US (and Asia) levels – a relative plus for its recyclers & sustainable solution producers.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, August 2024

See PDF below for all charts, tables and diagrams