Global Ethylene Markets Loosened WoW; Derivative Prices Face Downward Pressure Into 4Q24!

Polymer Market Trends: Global spot PE markets reflect a mixed setting WoW, with US spot PE levels reflecting more price (and integrated margin) weakness than overseas markets – conditions could worsen into yearend.
Chemical Market Trends: Global spot ethylene prices fell WoW, with US spot ethylene values declining more than Ex-US values – US spot levels, absent unplanned events, will likely fall further toward 2023 average levels.
Feedstock Market Trends: USGC spot ethane rose ~13% WoW, while Ex-US naphtha rose 1% – though US spot ethylene production remains cost-advantaged to Asia and Europe, its global cost curve flattened slightly WoW.
Agriculture Market Trends: Since reaching YTD lows in 2Q24, ammonia prices have bounced and reflect prices near YTD highs in many markets – falling Ex-US natural gas prices WoW imply more overseas production.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot ethylene substantially dropped last week but is still well above its 2023 average.