Global Market Analysis

Finding Support – Crop Input Indicators Turn a Bit More Bullish, But Still A Mixed Setting; A Better 2025 Is Likely

September 25, 2024

Daily Chemical Reaction

Finding Support – Crop Input Indicators Turn a Bit More Bullish, But Still A Mixed Setting; A Better 2025 Is Likely

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Corteva cut its 2H24 profit expectation this week, citing weaker-than-expected Latin American conditions, but foresees a better 2025 – we agree, and it will also benefit BASF amid its potential restructurings.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We highlight US spot ammonia margins reflecting levels near YTD highs and elevated relative to Europe, and we see that US spot ethylene prices have fallen relative to propylene and benzene WoW.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight the rise in US LPG and ethane exports, showing an upward trend since 2016, and we highlight the recent drop in US spot propane prices relative to Asia propane and US ethane prices.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss varying views on hydrogen demand, including those surrounding the blue hydrogen developments pauses for Shell and Equinor in Norway, and flag an upcoming C-MACC event.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Mortgage rates moved lower in September, as did the Conference Board US consumer confidence survey result. We also discuss other items like the OECD global 2024 GDP growth view.

Exhibit 1: Corteva highlights stunted corn planted acreage in Argentina as one of the reasons for its guidance cut, and we show Argentina and US soy and corn prices for a bit of perspective as crop markets see support in late September.