No Candy Coating Possible – A Bad Year Ahead for Sustainability and Transition

No amount of positive spin is likely to help energy transition and sustainability initiatives in 2025, as cost escalation has made most ideas unaffordable and un-financeable, regardless of changing political agendas.
The Trump Administration may be a catalyst for some business failures and some strategy changes, but these were likely inevitable regardless, without even more taxpayer-based incentives/subsidies, and/or inflation.
“White Knights” will be hard to find in 2025 for the many struggling companies, and interest will likely be in assets and facilities rather than whole companies. Some tactical asset-backed debt purchases may make sense.
Otherwise, we look at declining polymer prices, bad for the producers but also for recyclers, we think 2025 will disappoint for polyethylene and PVC versus current consensus (1Q25 may be helped by shutdowns).

Exhibit 1: Note that the EV improvement in 2024 is all Tesla, and all post the election in the US.