More Difficult To Find Beauty Than Beasts In 1Q25 – Global Markets Out Of Balance

Companies Mentioned: Nova, ExxonMobil, Dow, LyondellBasell, Borouge, Lotte Chemical, Hanwha, LG Chem, Albemarle, Freeport McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Tesla, Nissan, Energy Transfer, CloudBurst, ADNOC, Chevron, GE Vernova, Engine No. 1, Vantage Data Centers, VoltaGrid, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Nel, Siemens Energy, Accelera, RWE, Vattenfall, SSE, BYD
Commodities Mentioned: Lithium, Copper, Polypropylene, Polyethylene, Natural Gas, EVs, Batteries, Hydrogen

Key Findings

General Thoughts: We discuss weakness in Asia spot polyethylene (PE) markets relative to the US, Europe, and the Middle East, which have benefited more from production issues – global PE demand remains broadly weak.
Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss Albemarle 4Q24 results and lithium market oversupply, UK Chemical Industry Association concerns about its competitive position, and flag a few sector reports and profit outlooks.
Energy/Upstream: We highlight Energy Transfer 4Q results, takeaways from its earnings call, its push to integrate its natural gas networks into power generation, and our generally positive natural gas demand outlook.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: We discuss the startup of a Tesla Megapack battery facility in China, the lower cost of Chinese batteries relative to those in the West, and plummeting Thyssenkrupp Nucera electrolyzer orders.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: We discuss US housing supply rising to its highest level since 2020, but pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level since 2020. High US mortgage rates are harming buyer affordability.