Global Weekly Catalyst No. 271

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 271

• General Thoughts: The crude oil price drop YTD benefited global refinery profits and ethylene margins; however, it has broadly benefited global refiners, while Europe and Asia ethylene margins have improved more than in the US.  
• Feedstocks & Energy: Base chemical cost curves have flattened during the past 30 days, though the feedstock shifts last week highlight US natural gas falling relative to Brent crude oil and European and Asian natural gas.
• Olefins: Global spot polymer-grade propylene (PGP) and ethylene prices declined last week, lagging the recent decline in feedstock costs and likely supporting downward pressure on derivative prices in late 1Q/early 2Q25.  
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot benzene prices declined last week, extending their drop during the past 30 days, and we also highlight recent movements in regional methanol spot prices following production issues.
• Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices varied WoW, with USGC, Europe, and Asia spot prices falling while US spot ammonia prices in the corn belt strengthened. Corn market fundamentals moderated slightly WoW.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production margins remained negative last week per our model, despite a modest implied decrease in spot market corn costs. US crude oil refinery margins rose to a YTD high WoW.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Lower crude oil prices have benefited global average refinery and ethylene margins YTD.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, March 2025