Price Check: The Higher They Go, the Harder Gains Are to Hold

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Higher prices are lifting earnings across constrained markets, but persistent restructuring and responsive supply show that today’s gains still face a meaningful durability test.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Asian chemical prices remain supported by elevated feedstock prices and low operating rates, with regional restructuring likely to persist even if feedstock costs moderate.
Energy/Upstream: North American oil and gas supply is still growing as global growth faces greater disruption, which could keep chemical cost gaps wider even as today’s extreme spreads narrow.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Lithium demand is expanding beyond electric vehicles as storage grows, but returning supply should limit price upside and reward low-cost projects with proven resource efficiency.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Large retailers are keeping prices low as costs rise, leaving chemical value chains less room to pass through inflation and making low-cost production increasingly valuable.