From Transition to Triage: Gridlock Alert

The so-called “energy transition” isn’t stopping—it’s being redefined by those still investing. As Western firms retreat under fading incentives, China is pushing forward to shape the future of green industrial growth.
With tariffs rising, capital tightening, and resources constrained, the global industrial map is fracturing—cost efficiency, integration, and local agility will define leadership, not ESG and wishful green premium posturing.
Asia Ex-China faces rising exposure from Chinese exports, putting its chemical base at acute risk of collapse and forced consolidation—especially as Western protectionism reshapes trade and lifts competitive asymmetry.
The plastic recycling sector is nearing structural failure. Global restructuring activities show a broken value chain where high costs, low virgin resin prices, and brand-owner commitment delays undercut its scale and viability.
Otherwise, we discuss US propylene fundamentals favoring higher prices relative to Asia, proposed retaliatory EU tariffs disrupting US polyethylene (PE), and China holding the tools to be a significant green ammonia player.

Companies Mentioned: Berry Global, Blue Polymers, Republic Services, Ravago, PureCycle, Dow, ExxonMobil, Westlake, Nova, SABIC, LyondellBasell, Shell, Chevron Phillips Chemical, Invista, Enterprise, Pinnacle Polymers, Braskem, Vopak, HSBC, Walmart, UBS, Mars, Colgate-Palmolive, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, RWE, Maersk, Credit Suisse, Boeing, ACWA Power, SINOPEC, China Energy Group, Shell, Mura Technology, Borealis, Waste Management, Cedo
Products Mentioned: Propylene, Ethylene, Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), Recycled Polypropylene (R-PP), Post-Consumer Resin (PCR), Ammonia, Hydrogen, Fossil Fuels, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Coal, Electricity, Naphtha, LPG, LNG Bioplastics, Aluminum

Exhibit 1: China’s dominant renewable energy power lead has allowed it to scale; green product growth is likely next.