Resin To Riches: Weekly Plastic Market Insights

General Thoughts: Western polypropylene (PP) spot prices will likely fall toward Asia levels during the next three years as Asian production rises, moving Europe and US PP-to-PGP price spreads closer to average Asia spot levels.
Polyethylene (PE): Global PE markets face short-term volatility amid looming retaliatory tariffs toward the US, and spot PE prices were lower across all regions last week, per our model, putting margins under pressure.
Polypropylene (PP): Average Asia spot PP reflects a ~20% discount to Western average levels per our estimate, and weakness in US spot PGP prices favors US spot PP price weakness absent potential near-term tariff support.
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): Average Asia and European spot PVC prices declined WoW, though they remain above US average spot levels, and despite near-term trade and volatility risk, a US PVC spot price collapse looks unlikely.
Other Sector Developments: Brent crude oil prices have risen after reaching 1Q25 lows in early March, and US natural gas prices have fallen from their 1Q25 highs. This trend is positive for US-integrated ethylene producers.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Spot US PP prices relative to US PGP reflect a regional spread above Asia and Europe.