When Hype Fades, Realists Quietly Build the Future

Companies Mentioned: Fertiglobe, ADNOC, Aduro, BASF, BP, Ballard, Bloom Energy, Chevron, Cleanfarms, Eneos, Eni, ExxonMobil, First Solar, Google, LS Power, McPhy, Microsoft, Mitsui Chemicals, Mitsubishi, Montag’s Rubicon, National Grid, NRG Energy, Origin Materials, Oryx, Oxy, Republic Services, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Vistra Energy, Viva Energy, Woodside
Commodities Mentioned: Ammonia, Aviation Fuel, Carbon, Cement, CO₂, Ethanol, HDPE, Hydrogen, LNG, Natural Gas, Plastic, Solar, Steel

1st Topic of the Week: Low-carbon ammonia is a pragmatic decarbonization tool—connecting energy, agriculture, and hydrogen—as policy fragments and capital shifts; low-cost producers with global reach will capture share.
2nd Topic of the Week: Even at peak hype, green hydrogen lacked firm economics—now, with Western policy eroding, Europe’s mandates remain its only lifeline, though fraught with challenges of their own.
Otherwise – Mark your calendars, as C-MACC CEO Cooley May will present on June 26 in Houston at the Hydrogen Technology Expo North America, discussing Europe’s hydrogen dilemma, policy therapy, and the road ahead.

Exhibit 1: Global spot ammonia prices have moderated to levels favoring growth projects in only low-cost areas.