As Corn-fidence Is Shakin’, Buyer Margins May Awakin’

Companies Mentioned: Valero, The Andersons, Fertiglobe, Yara, CF Industries, Nutrien, Corteva, Devon, Coterra, Enterprise Products, Tesla, Chevrolet, Volkswagen, Xiaomi, BYD, Chevron, BASF, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Mitsui, Kansas Ethanol, Ford, Dollar General, Walmart
Commodities Mentioned: Natural Gas, Ammonia, Nitrogen Fertilizer, UAN, Corn, Fertilizers, Seeds, Urea, Crude Oil, Ethane, Butane, Biofuel, EVs, Ethanol

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Positive sentiment benefiting US ammonia fertilizer producers amid substantial corn plantings and on-farm spending may weaken in 2H25, potentially reversing trends and benefiting US ethanol producers.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Global ammonia prices have trended lower YTD, while natural gas costs have trended higher. We are more confident that US natural gas prices will move higher in 2H25 than in ammonia price strength.
Energy/Upstream: Shale rig declines reveal vulnerabilities beneath resilient production, while US ethane export restrictions benefit domestic buyers but pressure strategic flexibility and could reshape domestic NGL investment.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: US biofuel growth veils policy turbulence and market volatility, while strong hybrid demand contrasts slower US EV adoption, and BYD pushes to intensify EV cost competition from China.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Freight rate volatility signals logistics fragility amid tariff disruptions, and China’s rare-earth squeeze exposes deeper supply chain risks, threatening manufacturing resilience in 2H25 and beyond.