Global Weekly Catalyst No. 288

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 288

• General Thoughts: Weak end-product demand and recent chemical feedstock cost support have pinched non-integrated chemical margins in 2H25, with integrated producer margins more determined by global cost position.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Global feedstock shifts steepened cost curves slightly last week, setting up a volatile 2H25 as weak demand, expectations for lower global feedstock ratios, and trade friction pressure margins unevenly.
• Olefins: Western olefin prices increased last week, in contrast to broad-based declines in Asia and Europe. US Choctaw spot ethylene rose relative to the TX-grid, and US spot PGP prices remain compressed relative to RGP.
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot methanol prices declined, on average, last week, despite higher Ex-US natural gas prices, and US benzene prices rose meaningfully WoW relative to overseas levels, partly due to tariff risk.
• Agriculture: Ammonia prices were unchanged last week, per our model. However, the strength of Ex-US natural gas relative to US levels suggests ammonia price and North American margin strength despite weak corn markets.    
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol production margins rose last week into positive territory and near their YTD high last seen at the start of 2025 amid price support and falling corn costs. US refinery margins improved WoW.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US spot PGP prices return to multi-year lows relative to RGP.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, July 2025