If Policy Writes The Rules, Do Costs Still Matter?

Companies Mentioned: Methanex, OCI, Lynas, Intel, Phillips 66, Valero, REX American Resources, Green Plains, POET, FS Bioenergia, Gevo, Sekisui, Velocys, NextChem, Corteva, Nutrien
Commodities Mentioned: Methanol, Natural Gas, Formaldehyde, Coal, Marine Fuels, LNG, Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillates, Shale Oil, Biofuels, Ethanol, Corn, CCS (Carbon Capture & Storage), CO₂, Jet Fuel, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), Biodiesel, Soybeans, Seed, Fertilizer, Crop Protection, Oil

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Global oil flows remain unified, but fragmented gas markets now expose how policy, contracts, and cost divergence combine to redefine competitiveness across energy, agriculture, and critical minerals.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Methanol benchmarks endure above volatile spot levels, validating North American advantages, while Western premiums over Asia show contracts, logistics, and policy shaping competitiveness.
Energy/Upstream: Europe builds a diversified LNG grid to replace Russian flows, improve energy security, and stabilize industry, while US crude oil refiners face closures, tighter markets, and strategic pivots eastward.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Ethanol’s winners combine financial strength with CCS execution and export growth, treating carbon as a co-product while leveraging policy incentives to secure durable competitiveness.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Global agriculture and trade reveal imbalances where South American supply and transatlantic policy disputes, not yields or tariffs, increasingly redefine competitiveness and stability.