Global Weekly Catalyst No. 308

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 308

General Thoughts: Chemical feedstock movements impact producer margins WoW more than price movements, as chemical supply shifts in October and November have helped balance most markets into the final month of 2025.
Feedstocks & Energy: US natural gas and NGL values increased last week relative to crude oil and the averages of Asian and European naphtha and natural gas, pinching US chemical producer margins relative to those abroad.
Olefins: Olefin markets were essentially unchanged last week, with spot butadiene seeing the most significant swings. Global spot ethylene and propylene prices record little movement WoW but remain notably lower YTD.
Other Base Chemicals: Regional spot methanol prices moved in the opposite direction from respective regional natural gas prices WoW. Spot benzene prices fell globally WoW, with Western markets seeing the most weakness.
Agriculture: Global ammonia spot prices were unchanged last week, with USGC producers seeing their margins fall WoW amid higher natural gas prices. European spot ammonia margins reflected a 2025 high last week.
Refining & Biofuels: US refining and biofuel trends reflected weakness last week. US refinery margins fell modestly, and US ethanol margins fell more abruptly, with both seeing costs rise relative to downstream prices.