I Walk the Line: Logistics Beat Capacity, Discipline Defines Returns

The fundamental health of the global ammonia market increasingly hinges on logistics, reliability, and timing constraints, making basis risk and seasonal timing more decisive than headline prices or announced capacity.
Hydrogen cost dispersion, more than policy design, shapes ammonia trade patterns, structurally favoring gas-advantaged regions despite persistent momentum around alternative clean transition paths and subsidies.
Capital discipline has become a differentiator, as higher real rates reward incumbents that invest in reliability, debottlenecking, and balance-sheet durability rather than irreversible expansion in volatile macro conditions.
Investor confidence into 2026 depends on management teams framing durability under volatility, avoiding aggressive volume promises that risk credibility amid volatile agriculture, energy, and policy signals.
Otherwise, petrochemical sector developments show that oversupply caps integration upside, accelerating restructuring and shifting value creation toward selectively advantaged downstream and energy exposures.

Companies Mentioned: CF Industries, Nutrien, LSB Industries, Fertiglobe, Yara International, Woodside Energy, The Andersons, Green Plains, ADM, Shell, SABIC, LyondellBasell, Phillips 66, Albemarle, Rio Tinto, Glencore
Products Mentioned: Ammonia, Nitrogen, Urea, UAN, Corn, Soybeans, Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Ethylene, Ethane, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Naphtha, Crude Oil, LNG, Biodiesel, Biofuels, Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Carbon, Phosphate

Exhibit 1: Ammonia equities stay resilient as supply discipline and logistics scarcity dominate the cycle.