No Free Pour: Liquidity Sets Chemical Markets

Liquidity governs commodity outcomes as volatility and freight normalization compress timing buffers, elevating focus on cash conversion discipline over utilization in 4Q25 results and 2026 outlooks.
Policy acts as a working capital catalyst, forcing cash outlays, creating basis risk, and rewarding companies integrating compliance, contracting, and treasury into disciplined, execution-focused 2026 planning.
Affordability-driven ordering dominates demand signals as UAN-to-corn economics steer nitrogen timing, channel inventories, and ripple through ammonia rates, gas demand, and chemical intermediates in 2026.
Oil-to-gas ratio volatility resets petrochemical competitiveness, amplifying trade pressure and margin dispersion as freight normalizes and capital discipline determines winners and losers in 2026 globally.
Otherwise, we highlight tightening feedstock markets, tire demand, firmer gas prices, power scarcity, and cash constraints rewarding pragmatic operators in 2026, amplifying volatility and differentiation.

Companies Mentioned: Yara, Continental, Michelin, TPC Group, ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, BASF, INEOS, RPM, H.B. Fuller, Kinder Morgan, CF Industries, Nutrien, BASF, Corteva, Bayer, Syngenta
Products Mentioned: Crude Oil, UAN, Corn, Natural Gas, LNG, Ammonia, Methanol, Electricity, Wind, Solar, Batteries, Lithium, Copper, Ethanol

Exhibit 1: Energy volatility returns as freight normalizes, tightening liquidity and accelerating commodity repricing.