The Assumption Gap: Growth Capital Is Separating Current Economics From Durable Returns

Growth capital is separating current operating economics from durable expansion returns, favoring projects that remain attractive when the conditions supporting today’s results change materially.
RWE is committing heavily where customer agreements and capacity mechanisms support earnings visibility, allowing selected power investments to advance without relying entirely on merchant markets.
Thyssenkrupp Nucera is retaining SOEC exposure without funding factory-scale production, showing that attractive long-term markets can still lack sufficient orders to support manufacturing at scale.
Existing industrial sites gain option value when infrastructure is difficult to recreate, improving selective brownfield economics without making weak incumbent assets more competitive over time.
Additionally, strong Asian container volumes increasingly reflect infrastructure and investment goods, leaving port capacity constrained without giving convincing proof of a broad chemical demand recovery.

Companies Mentioned: Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, HF Sinclair, RWE, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Covestro, Evonik, LyondellBasell, Mosaic, Coromandel, Nutrien, AdvanSix, Intrepid, PureCycle, Borealis, Procter & Gamble, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk
Products Mentioned: Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Phosphate, Fertilizer, Ethane, Propane, Crude Oil, Coal, Diesel, Gasoline, Polypropylene, Polyethylene

Exhibit 1: US Natural Gas Advantage Persists as Higher Yields Raise the Growth Investment Hurdle.