Global Weekly Catalyst No. 345

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 345

• General Thoughts: Most attention remains on crude oil, but ex-US natural gas has made a more consequential move toward multi-year highs, widening regional cost gaps across chemicals, fertilizers, and energy-intensive industries.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Record US propane inventories show exports have not overwhelmed domestic supply, while cheaper Asian naphtha is supporting selective cracker recovery without signaling broad regional feedstock tightening.
• Olefins: Asian ethylene strength reflects tighter local availability rather than a broad demand recovery; muted US pricing and competitive export economics keep regional supply imbalances from tightening global markets.
• Other Base Chemicals: Base chemical pricing improved unevenly last week, but regional margin outcomes diverged sharply as natural gas costs favored US producers and pressured European and Asian spot production economics.
• Agriculture: Urea prices are easing as Chinese exports return, but low US natural gas prices preserve the nitrogen cost advantage, while elevated sulfur prices support firmer global phosphate pricing through year-end.
• Refining & Biofuels: US refiners are being paid for reliable capacity as global operating slack shrinks, while positive ethanol margins remain exposed to the additional production those returns continue to encourage.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Crude Draws Attention as Ex-US Natural Gas Nears Multi-Year Highs Across Key Markets.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, August 2026