Global Weekly Catalyst No. 347

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 347

• General Thoughts: Market disruptions are widening profit gaps across regions, making cost position and operating flexibility more important as companies decide where to put their next investment dollar.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Higher crude prices and constrained refinery output are keeping Asian naphtha expensive, widening the US olefin chain feedstock advantage even as weak chemical demand limits downstream cost recovery.
• Olefins: Asian supply losses are lifting olefin prices, Europe is absorbing higher feedstock costs through weaker margins, and US markets remain comparatively balanced as derivative demand remains soft on average.
• Other Base Chemicals: Asian benzene and methanol strength is rewarding producers that can deliver, as European conversion margins weaken, and US chlor-alkali assets retain materially better economics through year-end.
• Agriculture: Urea demand is firming, ammonia is weakening east of Suez, and Europe’s high production costs raise the risk of curtailment as North American plants retain materially stronger economics through late 3Q26.
• Refining & Biofuels: Near-full refinery runs have not rebuilt distillate inventories, keeping margins elevated near 2026 highs, as lower corn costs support ethanol profits but also invite faster production through autumn.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Europe’s Ammonia Price Premium Over the US Does Not Offset Higher Natural Gas Costs.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Estimates, September 2026