Low Critical Mineral Prices Help Buyers, Sets Stage for Value Chain Push Back to Higher Prices

Companies Mentioned: Albemarle, Aramco, ExxonMobil, Adnoc, BCI Minerals, Electra, Eurasian Resources Group, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, LOTTE Chemical Corporation, Codelco, SQM, Tianqi, EcoPro, Freeport-McMoRan, Standard Lithium, Altilium, Nissan, Lithium Americas, Cirba Solutions, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Glencore, MP Materials, Pilbara Minerals, Ganfeng Lithium, Solvay, Carester, Teck Resources, BYD, CATL, Canoo, GE, WR Grace, Tesla, Xiaomi
Commodities Mentioned: Copper, Lithium, LNG, Carbon, Hydrogen, PD, Bromine

Key Findings

General Thoughts: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index has increased only 1.4% YTD, following a ~53% YoY decline in 2023, as energy transition growth failed to offset a weak economy and net commodity supply growth.
Critical Mineral Supply: Lithium and Copper were the best performers in the C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index in 1Q24. We discuss this general global market and comment on lithium and related refining capacity growth.
Clean Energy Components & Recycling: Low critical mineral prices are a headwind for battery recycler economics, and we discuss the needed growth in EV retirements relative to current battery scrap to cut recycler costs significantly.
Critical Mineral Macro Demand: We compare electric vehicle (EV) and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production costs to show that battery cost cuts are critical to making EV production costs competitive with ICE.

Exhibit 1: The C-MACC Clean Energy Mineral Index Fell 53% In 2023 And Has Rebounded a Very Modest ~1.4% YTD.