ExxonMobil Can’t Be Right, But How Is the Analysis Wrong?

The ExxonMobil analysis published recently on global energy needs and how those needs are likely to be met is likely as good an estimate as any – the conclusions are politically unacceptable, but how will things change?
One of ExxonMobil’s conclusions is that oil (and maybe gas) investments fall too quickly, leading to oil shortages and high prices; this will change behavior and create political unrest, enhanced if climate change effects appear.
One possible consequence is economic stagnation globally, which would have many ramifications, one of which would be to slow energy demand growth – this could help market balance, but stagnation would be painful.
More power investments are needed now, with more accommodating policies around nuclear power. Other alternative solutions could be mandated demand limits. The energy industry needs to be asked more for help.
Otherwise, our monthly look at metals and minerals focuses on oversupply and overinvestment in lithium but underinvestment elsewhere. We look at changing hydrogen opinions and a “Marshall Plan” for climate action.

Exhibit 1: ExxonMobil’s Projection for 2050 vs other scenarios