Global Chemical Prices Mostly Fall Relative to Feedstocks WoW; US Methanol & Ammonia Margins Improve WoW

Polymer Market Trends: Western polymer prices broadly fall relative to Asia WoW, with European polymer production margins reflecting the most weakness WoW – a development that could notably worsen in 4Q24.
Chemical Market Trends: US spot ethylene margins have fallen from a YTD high in 3Q24 to reflect levels near their 4Q low, and we discuss trends in Western base chemical prices implying downstream weakness in 4Q24.
Feedstock Market Trends: USGC spot ethane and US natural gas prices have risen ~36% and ~16% since ~30 days ago, reflecting greater strength than most other global chemical feedstocks, such as crude oil/naphtha.
Agriculture Market Trends: We discuss global ammonia price movements and Ex-US natural gas strength relative to US levels WoW, favoring a positive margin shift WoW for North American ammonia producers.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Global spot-integrated ethylene margins have plummeted from their 3Q24 highs.