Corn-Frontation – Trade Schemes, Bushels Of Trouble, & E15 Mandate As Food For Thought!

Global Market Analysis

Corn-Frontation – Trade Schemes, Bushels Of Trouble, & E15 Mandate As Food For Thought!

Key Findings

• General Thoughts: US crop production appears likely to struggle to keep pace with demand, especially if favorable policy/incentives spur biofuel production. As food for thought, we evaluate the impact of a mandated E15 blend.
• Supply Chain/Commodities: We discuss our constructive global view of ammonia, highlighting its use as a fertilizer that benefits from corn plantings, areas of demand growth beyond agriculture, and the current market landscape.
• Energy/Upstream: We highlight the significant cost advantages of producing ammonia in North America and the Middle East relative to Europe and Asia, terminal-level views from Vopak, and ongoing US fuel policy debates.
• Sustainability/Energy Transition: US ethanol production margins are broadly negative amid pinched economics and elevated inventories, and we discuss the latest REX American business updates and its views on ethanol policy.
• Downstream/Other Chemicals: While we think that ongoing trade disputes between the US and other countries will cause volatility, we do not believe it will adversely impact US farm economics in the medium-to-long term.

Exhibit 1: While not mandated, we discuss a nationwide shift to E15 gasoline blends in 2026 as food for thought – such a move would turn US corn primarily into a domestic fuel crop, deepening ties between agriculture and energy.

Source: USDA, C-MACC Analysis, March 2025

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