Global Weekly Catalyst No. 276

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 276

• General Thoughts: Global ethylene production feedstock shifts display US ethane’s cost advantage over US propane and ex-US naphtha, favoring tighter US propylene markets and margins for non-integrated buyers.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Global base chemical feedstock prices mostly fell relative to 30 days ago. However, US propane values have increased, underscoring how geopolitics and trade flows can drive regional disconnects.
• Olefins: Global olefin prices mostly declined last week, trailing the prior week’s feedstock weakness. US spot PGP prices increased, supporting PDH profits amid production issues and lighter feedstock preferences.
• Other Base Chemicals: Methanol spot values declined across all major markets last week, USGC spot benzene prices rebounded relative to Europe and Asia, and Chlor-alkali continues to face pressure from oversupply.
• Agriculture: Stable global ammonia prices and lower gas costs support near-term margins. However, rising global supply and fading seasonal demand will likely pressure prices in 2H25, favoring low-cost producers.
• Refining & Biofuels: US ethanol margins remain negative despite slight WoW improvement. In contrast, crude refinery margins stay strong in the US, supported by tight supply and lower oil prices in late April.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: US ethylene production cash costs using propane are nearing Ex-US naphtha cost levels.  

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, April 2025