Global Weekly Catalyst No. 285

Base Chemical Global Analysis

Global Weekly Catalyst No. 285

• General Thoughts: North American petrochemical producers benefit as natural gas and crude oil prices return to 1Q25 levels, improving feedstock ratios relative to Asia and Europe amid unpredictable geopolitical volatility.
• Feedstocks & Energy: Many of the concerns about low crude oil prices significantly cutting US oil and associated gas production have dissipated, for now, amid geopolitical tensions—a positive development for North America.
• Olefins: Asia’s olefin markets rally, while Western regions reflect mostly stable prices, as divergent feedstock costs, petrochemical plant outages, and geopolitical risks shape near-term buyer patterns and pricing dynamics.
• Other Base Chemicals: Global spot methanol prices rose again last week amid rising ex-US natural gas prices and the risk of Middle East tensions continuing to impact methanol production—a negative trend for global buyers.
• Agriculture: Feedstock trends indicate rising ammonia prices and a relative margin advantage for US and Middle East producers. Falling corn prices relative to soybeans pose risks for nitrogen-based fertilizer use next season.   
• Refining & Biofuels: US crude oil refining margins rose last week, following four consecutive weeks of declines, while US ethanol spot margins also declined, as the US ethanol price decline outpaced the decrease in corn costs.

Exhibit 1 – Chart of the Day: Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia increase relative to those in North America in 2Q25.

Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, June 2025