Control, Not Capacity: The Market’s Shift from Volume to Value Creation

Companies Mentioned: Westlake, DuPont, Fertiglobe, Aramco, Westlake Chemical Partners LP, The Andersons, ADM, LG Chem, Eni, MPLX, Enterprise Products, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Enbridge, Skyland
Commodities Mentioned: Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), Corn, Soybeans, Ethanol, Carbon, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Natural gas liquids (NGLs), LPG, LNG, Crude oil, Diesel, Jet fuel, Butane, Renewable diesel, Silicon, Ammonia, Urea, Fertilizers

Key Findings

General Thoughts: When everyone’s focused on scale and sentiment, strategic reinvention often gets overlooked, yet it’s these under-the-radar shifts that tend to compound, endure, and outperform through disruption.
Supply Chain/Commodities: Structural leverage, not cyclicality, is emerging as 2025’s sharpest differentiator, where DuPont redefines silicon value chains and Fertiglobe steers ammonia’s geopolitical ascent with optionality.
Energy/Upstream: Strategic control, not scale, is redefining the energy value chain as US integrated midstream and refined product leaders weaponize volatility through yield, export leverage, and system-wide optionality.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Ethanol’s new margin map centers on carbon, not corn, as CI scores, feedstock control, and co-product strategy increasingly define profitability more than gallons, geography, or grind rate.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: As homebuilding stalls, remodeling is driving durable material demand and margin depth. In crops, surplus and tariff risk reward those monetizing logistics, not betting on weather or yield.