Landslide: Capacity, Policy Will Shift 2026 Markets Faster Than Demand Recovers

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Ammonia markets hinge on reliability, not recovery, keeping prices elevated as supply additions lag volatility, farmer demand flexes, and integrated low-cost producers outperform in early 2026.
Supply Chain/Commodities: China-driven polyolefin oversupply shifts clearing to trade, while PVC could tighten faster than polyolefins on housing. Lithium also strengthens as storage demand reshapes markets.
Energy/Feedstocks: Range-bound oil masks volatile differentials, policy-driven biofuels, and natural gas-linked feedstocks, favoring integrated systems that compound returns as single-asset models face more risk.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: Carbon prices rise in Europe, functioning as a trade policy. US ethanol margin formation hinges on policy and logistics, rewarding operators and penalizing opaque supply chains.
Downstream Markets/Demand: Markets underestimate how a softer, volatile US dollar and easier financial conditions shift trade margins, while agricultural profitability pivots on acreage decisions and input timing.