When Harry Met Ethylene: Chemistry Holds, Low Returns Are Sending The Global Couple To Therapy!

Key Findings

General Thoughts: Early-2026 cost-curve shifts amid persistent chemical market oversupply are forcing restructuring, with clear evidence likely emerging in 4Q25 results and more decisive 2026 strategic outlooks.
Supply Chain/Commodities: US ethylene exports deliver higher value to consumers than ethane, but greater domestic absorption, derivative pull, and policy pressures should tighten spreads and arbitrage timelines.
Energy/Upstream: US electricity prices are rising amid surging demand, constrained grid supply, and growing time-to-market premiums, increasingly decoupling delivered power prices from generation costs.
Sustainability/Energy Transition: EU carbon prices keep climbing in 2026, overtaking natural gas as Europe’s primary cost lever, reshaping trade flows, rewarding low-carbon exporters, and forcing industrial adaptation.
Downstream/Other Chemicals: Housing upside risk in 2026 remains underappreciated as falling mortgage rates unlock deferred demand, surprise volumes, and turn cautious outlooks into asymmetric upside.